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May 03, 2003
Doing the math
Here is another take in those performance numbers for the Apple Music store. First they raise the same point we raised yesterday (or was it the day before): And don't forget that the current universe of potential iTunes Music Store customers is pretty darn tiny. Mac users are a minuscule subset of the total pool of computer users (albeit the smart, charming, and good-looking subset), and the number of Mac users in the U.S. (iTMS is U.S.-only so far) running Mac OS X 10.1.5 or higher (required for iTunes 4) is even smaller still. It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to figure out what's likely to happen when Apple introduces the service outside U.S. borders and to all those poor slobs out there running Windows.
Jack goes on to do the maths: Aw, heck, it's Friday; let's do a teensy bit of math just for giggles. Figure first of all that the iTunes Music Store was maybe ten times more active at its launch than it will be on an average day once the hype starts to die down. That's 27,500 songs sold in 18 hours, or 36,667 a day, just among Mac users. Now, let's conservatively estimate that Windows support will increase Apple's customer base, say, eightfold, and international support will double it. That comes out to roughly 586,000 songs sold per day, even ignoring any boost that might come as Apple extends the store's catalog beyond the stuff offered by the major labels. Word on the street is that Apple gets about 35 cents per song it sells; even after siphoning off bandwidth and support costs, we're talking about probably at least a cool million bucks in pure profit for Apple each and every week. Yowza!
And who said that this would be small bickies?
The good news is that some of the protests about international access are working. According to MacRumours the whole international things is more a reflection on the music labels than Apple. Well the initial enthusiasm, even in a small segment of the market, has made the dollar signs appear in the eyes of the music industry all around the world and they are queueing up to sign up with Apple.....
Posted by Ozguru at May 3, 2003 08:05 AM
